浅析后期影响华东聚丙烯市场的因素
In August, the PP market price in East China remained stable with a slight increase, and transactions continued to be lackluster. Sinopec and PetroChina regions have launched a wave of price increases, which has played a certain driving role in the market. In addition, the overall resources in the market are not abundant, and most traders maintain a good mentality, mainly following a slight price increase for shipments. However, due to weak terminal demand and limited downstream factories fearing high prices, overall trading has always been in a poor state.
2、 Future Market Forecast
Upstream market: International crude oil. OPEC will hold a meeting in Algiers, the capital of Algeria from September 26th to 28th. There are rumors that member countries will reach a freeze agreement at this meeting, and Russia will also join the freeze to prevent further decline in oil prices. However, the opposing side is still worried because the oil production of major oil producing countries has quietly skyrocketed to new highs. Propylene monomer, some domestic facilities in China are closed, resulting in a decrease in market monomer supply, which may provide some support for short-term prices.
Market supply: The 2016 Hangzhou G20 Summit in China is approaching, and in order to ensure air quality during the conference, Zhejiang has introduced the "West Lake Blue" Action Environmental Protection Plan, which divides polluting enterprises in the jurisdiction by region and level, and adopts measures such as production stoppage and restriction. At that time, multiple PP petrochemical plants will be involved. According to cutting-edge news, Shaoxing Sanyuan and Ningbo Formosa Plastics plan to shut down for maintenance by the end of August and mid September. Shanghai Petrochemical's first and second lines may take turns driving, while Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is initially set to reduce load production. Yangzi Petrochemical, Ningbo Fude, and Donghua Yangzijiang Petrochemical are waiting to be confirmed. This policy may provide support for short-term supply in the market.
In terms of petrochemicals, the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises is not high, and the release of goods is continuously decreasing towards the end of the month. The current situation of tight on-site supply may continue, and the intention to raise prices may not change, which may form strong support for spot goods.
Downstream industry: As a sensitive area for environmental protection, the plastic industry naturally receives much attention at this special moment. It is reported that most of the companies that shut down during the G20 control period are concentrated in high polluting product enterprises, while plastic product enterprises, although involving many enterprises, including woven bags, BOPP, daily necessities, wires and cables, and some blow molding enterprises, have not generated much pollution in the production process, so they are mainly ordered to reduce production burden. A daily necessities product company stated that they did receive relevant notices, but due to the recent downturn in the plastic industry, their original operating rate was only 70-80%, so reducing the negative to 50-60% will not have too much impact.
Overall, downstream factories have already been weak in receiving goods and will now face control measures from the G20 summit. The persistent problem of weak demand will continue to hinder the development of the market. However, with the support of strong quotes from petrochemical companies and low social inventory, the possibility of a downturn in the future is also unlikely. It is expected that the PP market in East China may be stable in the near future, with small cap adjustments.
